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Sunday, May 27, 2007

The High Price of Creating Free Ads (NYTimes, 5/26/07)

May 26, 2007
The High Price of Creating Free Ads
By LOUISE STORY
From an advertiser’s perspective, it sounds so easy: invite the public to create commercials for your brand, hold a contest to pick the best one and sit back while average Americans do the creative work.
But look at the videos H. J. Heinz is getting on YouTube.
In one of them, a teenage boy rubs ketchup over his face like acne cream, then puts pickles on his eyes. One contestant chugs ketchup straight from the bottle, while another brushes his teeth, washes his hair and shaves his face with Heinz’s product. Often the ketchup looks more like blood than a condiment.
Heinz has said it will pick five of the entries and show them on television, though it has not committed itself to a channel or a time slot. One winner will get $57,000. But so far it’s safe to say that none of the entries have quite the resonance of, say, the classic Carly Simon “Anticipation” ad where the ketchup creeps oh so slowly out of the bottle.
Heinz Top This TV ChallengeEntry #138: Dan's Heinz Commercial
Consumer brand companies have been busy introducing campaigns like Heinz’s that rely on user-generated content, an approach that combines the populist appeal of reality television with the old-fashioned gimmick of a sweepstakes to select a new advertising jingle. Pepsi, Jeep, Dove and Sprint have all staged promotions of this sort, as has Doritos, which proudly publicized in February that the consumers who made one of its Super Bowl ad did so on a $12 budget.
But these companies have found that inviting consumers to create their advertising is often more stressful, costly and time-consuming than just rolling up their sleeves and doing the work themselves. Many entries are mediocre, if not downright bad, and sifting through them requires full-time attention. And even the most well-known brands often spend millions of dollars upfront to get the word out to consumers.
Some people, meanwhile, have been using the contests as an opportunity to scrawl digital graffiti on the sponsor and its brand. Rejected Heinz submissions have been showing up on YouTube anyway, and visitors to Heinz’s page on the site have written that the ketchup maker is clearly looking for “cheap labor” and that Heinz is “lazy” to ask consumers to do its marketing work.
“That’s kind of a popular misnomer that, somehow, it’s cheaper to do this,” said David Ciesinski, vice president for Heinz Ketchup. “On the contrary, it’s at least as expensive, if not more.”
Heinz has hired an outside promotions firm to watch all the videos and forward questionable ones to Heinz employees in its Pittsburgh headquarters. So far, they have rejected more than 370 submissions (at least 320 remain posted on YouTube). The gross-out factor is not among their screening criteria — rather, most of the failed entries were longer than the 30-second time limit, entirely irrelevant to the contest or included songs protected by copyright. Some of the videos displayed brands other than Heinz (a big no-no) or were rejected because “they wouldn’t be appropriate to show mom,” Mr. Ciesinski said.
Heinz hopes to show more than five of them, if there are enough that convey a positive, appealing message about Heinz ketchup, he said. But advertising executives who have seen some of the entries say that Heinz may be hard pressed to find any that it is proud to run on television in September.
“These are just so bad,” said Linda Kaplan Thaler, chief executive of the Kaplan Thaler Group, an advertising agency in New York that is not involved with Heinz’s contest.
One of the most viewed Heinz videos — seen, at last count, more than 12,800 times — ends with a close-up of a mouth with crooked, yellowed teeth. When Ms. Kaplan Thaler saw it, she wondered, “Were his teeth the result of, maybe, too much Heinz?”
Heinz Top This TV ChallengeEntry #4: My Entry For The Heinz Commercial Contest
Scott Goodson, chief executive of StrawberryFrog, an advertising agency based in New York, said the shortcomings of contest entries — not just those for Heinz — refuted predictions that user-generated content might siphon work away from agencies. “This Heinz campaign, much like the same ones done by Doritos, Converse and Dodge, only goes to show how hard it is to do great advertising,” he said.
In a traditional ad campaign, a client like Heinz will meet with its advertising agencies to come up with a central idea, often a tagline like MasterCard’s “Priceless.” The creative departments then design the ads while the media planners figure out where they should run. Except for the occasional focus group, consumers are largely on the receiving end.
In campaigns that solicit work from the public, the model appears to be quite different — consumers, after all, create the ads. But, in reality, ad agencies and brand marketers are still doing much of the legwork. Heinz and Doritos spent months planning their user-generated contests, hiring lawyers to vet them and designing advertisements to promote them. Then they assigned employees to wade through entries.
“These contests have nothing to do with cost savings,” said Jared Dougherty, a spokesman for Frito-Lay, the division of PepsiCo that owns the Doritos brand.
While the winners of the Doritos contest may have spent only $12, Doritos spent about $1.3 million on advertising in October, according to estimates from Nielsen Monitor-Plus. And that was when it was promoting the contest, which invited people to create a 30-second commercial that would run during the Super Bowl. Doritos received 1,020 videos and awarded prizes of $10,000 to five finalists.
And then Doritos, a unit of the Frito-Lay division of PepsiCo, spent more than $8 million on advertising in February when it showed the top five commercials, more than any month in the last two years, according to Nielsen Monitor-Plus.
Other companies are also spending handsomely to present user-generated content to the public. Last Tuesday, KFC put on a commercial during “American Idol” that consisted entirely of clips about KFC that consumers had posted on the Internet — even without a contest. Heinz, too, says that customers have been making videos starring its bottle long before its contest and posting them on sites like YouTube.
Heinz has run ads for its contest during “American Idol” and other television shows (as well as in large newspapers like The New York Times), but it has gone a step further: it has converted all the labels on its bottles and ketchup packets into ads for the contest. This was a major initiative that involved everything from building new industrial printing plates to timing the shipment of bottles so they would appear on shelves at the beginning of May, said Mr. Ciesinski of Heinz.
And for all of Heinz’s effort, the interests of many of the contestants lie far outside its own. Steve Sass, 48, who taped two Heinz commercials, is running for president as a write-in candidate. Ed Barry, 34, writes sketches about a character named Vinny and is trying to get his work noticed. Some contestants say in interviews that they prefer mustard or mayonnaise.
Michelle Cale, a 39-year-old Web designer in Morgantown, W.Va., has a more traditional motive. “It is a substantial sum of money, which, of course, caught my eye,” she said.
Heinz Top This TV ChallengeEntry #28: I Can Always Count On You Heinz Ketchup!
In one of Ms. Cale’s two Heinz videos, after dropping her children at school, she spends the day playing with a bottle of ketchup at the park. As she plays with the bottle on the playground as if it were a child, she proclaims, “you mean so much to me.” Then she pours ketchup on a juicy hamburger to eat it.
Then there is Dan Burke, who brushed his teeth and shaved with ketchup, and said he hoped the vulgarity would help his video stand out. A 20-year-old college student in Centerville, Ohio, Mr. Burke wants to win and to use the prize money to attend a two-year training program in wrestling.
He described his strategy: “I just thought to myself, ‘What is the single strangest thing I can do with ketchup?’ ”

Apple’s Lesson for Sony’s Stores: Just Connect (NYTimes, 5/27/07)

May 27, 2007
Digital Domain
Apple’s Lesson for Sony’s Stores: Just Connect
By RANDALL STROSS
RETAIL is supposed to be hard. Apple has made it seem ridiculously easy. And yet it must be harder than it appears, or why hasn’t the Windows side of the personal computer business figured it out?
Of the many predictions in the world of technology that have turned out to be spectacularly wrong, a prominent place should be made for what the pundits said in 2001 when Apple opened its first retail store in Tysons Corner, Va. “It’s completely flawed,” one analyst said, and that was the conventional wisdom. Commercial rent and furnishings would be expensive, inventory tricky and margins slim. Experienced computer resellers were struggling, and no computer manufacturer had ever found success operating its own branded stores. Analysts predicted at the time that Apple would shut down the stores and write off the huge losses in two years.
That assuredly would have been the Apple store’s fate had Steve Jobs permitted aesthetic and design considerations to trump all else. But while guiding the planning for the stores in 2000 and 2001, Mr. Jobs took on a more ambitious challenge than building freestanding museums of design that would show the Apple flag and do little else. He set out to create the conditions most likely to convert museum visitors into actual customers, and then to make those customers feel that they were being pampered long after the sale was consummated.
At the time, retail stores seemed passé. Gateway Country Stores were trying to make a go of a combination of old and new, inviting customers to come in, touch, order — and then go home and wait patiently, because the stores did not carry any inventory. Dell’s build-on-demand model dispensed with stores altogether and seemed to embody the future.
Mr. Jobs understood, however, that his stores would sell not merely products but also gratification. He told the trade magazine Chain Store Age Executive in 2001: “When I bring something home to the kids, I want to get the smile. I don’t want the U.P.S. guy to get the smile.”
The stores were born fully formed and have not required any fundamental changes. The best innovation was present on Day One: the “Genius Bar,” with a staff of diagnostic wizards whose expertise is available in one-on-one consultations — free. Pure genius. More than half of the retail store’s staff is assigned to post-sales service.
Customer response is told in the numbers. Last month, Apple released results for the quarter ended March 31. More than 21.5 million people visited its stores, which now number more than 180. Store sales were $855 million, up 34 percent from the quarter a year earlier, and they contributed more than $200 million in profits.
For perspective, look at the parallel story of Sony, which in 2004 began its attempt to create a branded retail chain. That was the same year Gateway closed the remnants of its 188-store chain. Today, Sony has 39 Sony Style stores, built out from the flagship stores in New York and San Francisco. The company’s breadth of product lines in consumer electronics and related accessories, as well as computers, would seem to give it a significant advantage over Apple. But because Sony does not release data on the stores’ sales or profits, it is hard to assess how its retail venture is doing.
Last Sunday, I set out to have a look for myself. I began at Sony’s flagship in San Francisco, at the Metreon Center, the shopping and entertainment complex. The mall was crowded, but Sony’s store, measuring an enormous 20,000 square feet, was all but deserted. The two uniformed members of the store security staff matched the number of customers I could see browsing the store’s wares.
Then I headed for the Stanford Shopping Center in Palo Alto, where I could see a Sony Style store compete almost directly across from an Apple retail store. The weather was gorgeous, drawing the usual weekend throng to the shopping center.
Sony’s mall store was long and large — 6,000 square feet — and filled with curvy panels and chirpy taglines like “My Style” on the walls and plush theater nooks. Here, too, the sales staff seemed to outnumber customers.
A group of five young salesmen and saleswomen who stood near the door when I entered were so engaged in a private, and apparently amusing, discussion that my imploring presence failed to draw anyone’s attention. The only other customers in the store were at the far other end, near the PlayStations. I suppose that the employees near me had become accustomed to busying themselves with their own entertainments.
A few yards away was the Apple store, which is one of Apple’s newer “mini” stores, introduced in 2004 and only about an eighth the size of Sony’s Stanford store. It was simplicity itself: a rectangular space with products lining the two sides, laptops placed on a small table, open space taking up most of the room, and, of course, the Genius Bar. The store was packed, yet the sales people were alert and attentive.
Last week, I shared these impressions with Dennis Syracuse, senior vice president for Sony Retail, who assured me that Sony’s stores drew an average of 350,000 visitors annually per store. Mr. Syracuse rejected the idea that his store concept could be compared to Apple’s. His stores were conceived, he said, as a “fashion boutique for women and children” that incidentally happened to carry electronics instead of clothing.
When describing how Sony had entered a new retail world as “fashion merchants,” he pointed with pride to the choice spot he had secured for the first store, next to Gucci and across from Versace. Indeed, if you would like to accessorize an outfit with a color-coordinated laptop, the Sony Style store offers models in pink, violet, champagne and many more.
But Sony’s offerings have not impressed retail consultants with whom I spoke. Willard Ander, a senior partner at McMillan Doolittle in Chicago, was unsparing in his assessment: “Sony doesn’t get retail. The stores are not energized and not shop-able.” Apple stores extend an “emotional connection” to their customers that Sony’s do not, Mr. Ander said. The absence of such a connection, he said, was a common failing of manufacturers who venture into retail on their own. (Dell, meanwhile, announced last week that it would soon begin selling its computers in stores — but not its own. It will offer its machines in 3,000 Wal-Mart stores.)
Wendy Liebman, the founder of WSL Strategic Retail in New York, was equally critical of the Sony Style store, which she faulted as being merely “a place of stuff.” She said that a successful brand excites a passionate attachment, the way Starbucks or Target do, and that Apple’s stores exemplify “emotional connection.”
“People can just walk in, absorb the fumes and feel like the smartest technophile in the world,” she said. Let’s add that there is only one place to buy computers that features Geniuses at all times.
IT may be that as long as personal computer makers stick with Windows, no amount of merchandiser ingenuity will be able to gin up passion matching a Mac enthusiast’s. But the proposition really has not been put to a fair test in a store. Imagine having the opportunity to test-drive a high-performance Windows machine made by a boutique manufacturer like Voodoo, based in Calgary, Alberta. Voodoo offers a variety of configurations for different kinds of uses and varying performance levels that it labels as medium, high, extreme and insane. What’s “insane”? A Voodoo Omen, configured for serious graphics work — two dual-core processors, liquid cooling, four 15,000-RPM hard drives — costs more than $16,000. No Apple retail store carries anything like it.
Then again, no store selling Windows machines does, either. You have to go online to order it. Hewlett-Packard acquired Voodoo last year but has not expanded distribution channels to allow customers to test-drive these babies out on the road. I don’t think I can point my spousal unit to the Voodoo Web site and persuade her that a $5,563 Voodoo configured for the home office is just what we need: “You see, dear, we’ll actually be saving $3,500 by going ‘extreme’ rather than ‘insane.’ ” Come to think of it, I’m not ready to make the purchase, either. That’s a sale that has no chance without a family visit to a store for a hands-on trial.
Sony already has the stores. What it lacks among its offerings is a machine so extraordinary that people would come just to gawk at it, and then, perhaps, would notice surrounding products that shine in the reflected light.
Mr. Ander says he believes that any company, if clever enough, can use intangibles to attract retail customers. “If Payless ShoeSource can reposition itself as a place that markets ‘cool,’ ” he asked, “then why can’t Sony?”
Randall Stross is an author based in Silicon Valley and a professor of business at San Jose State University. E-mail: stross@nytimes.com.

Coke Struggles to Keep Up With Nimble Rivals (NYTimes, 5/27/07)

May 27, 2007
Coke Struggles to Keep Up With Nimble Rivals
By ANDREW MARTIN
“A Coke is a Coke and no amount of money can get you a better Coke than the one the bum on the corner is drinking. All the Cokes are the same and all the Cokes are good.” — Andy Warhol
Atlanta
WALK through any room of the sparkling New World of Coca-Cola museum here and you get a sense of the unusual purchase Coke has on the American imagination. With a huge, glowing Coke bottle beaming from its roof, this $96 million museum includes a mini-bottling plant, interactive gadgets and a short movie about collectors of Coke memorabilia. Sure enough, a woman wearing a red-and-white Coke pantsuit, with a matching purse, is among the viewers at a recent screening of the film.
Visitors can also create personalized Coke artwork on a computer screen or jot down memories about their first Coke, some of which are posted nearby. One example: “I remember my first kiss in 1972. I was with Joey Zawadski from Chicago. He was visiting his grandmother who lived in my town. He leaned over to give me a kiss and it tasted like Coke. Joey is gone but I still have my Coke. Betty.”
But while it still maintains its enviable pop-culture status, the Coca-Cola Company no longer wields the kind of business clout it did decades ago, when Coke, as jingle after jingle told us, was the “real thing” that graciously taught the world to sing “in perfect harmony.” Instead, lashed to a product and a corporate culture that is older than many of its most well-known marketing pitches, Coke has found itself outmaneuvered, at least in the United States, by a host of more creative competitors, like PepsiCo. As those rivals have diversified and taken risks, Coke, the beverage industry’s Goliath, has struggled to reinvent itself.
Some, like E. Neville Isdell, Coke’s chairman and chief executive, say the company has a good playbook in hand. When he is not talking about “transformational wellness platforms” and the “need state map,” Mr. Isdell likes to sprinkle the word “fun” into his speeches. He refers to his days as a rugby player as “fun.” He likes a Coke ad because “it’s absolutely brand-centric and it’s fun.” Working in the soft-drink business is fun, too, he says.
But Mr. Isdell’s words aren’t entirely convincing: fun has been hard to come by at Coke headquarters here for quite some time.
A towering 63-year-old from Ireland, Mr. Isdell left a comfortable, tropical retirement in Barbados three years ago to return to one of the world’s most recognizable companies, but one that was in disarray after years of turnover, misdirection and internal squabbles. In doing so, he became the caretaker of one of the most storied legacies in corporate America, and a business that has set standards for savvy global expansion, lithe, and inventive brand management and marketing panache.
Yet the future of the company that Mr. Isdell took over in 2004 was in jeopardy. Coke’s tightly knit and long-serving board selected him after it had unsuccessfully pursued several other big-name chief executives. Meanwhile, PepsiCo, Coke’s longtime nemesis, was clobbering it in the United States, helping to cause Coke’s stock to lose nearly half of its value from its 1998 high of $88.
Now, nearly three years after Mr. Isdell created a “Manifesto for Change,” it remains unclear whether he can reclaim Coke’s former glory. He and his team have largely borrowed their turnaround strategy from the heroes of Coke’s past: blanket the landscape with Coke signs, push the product in developing markets abroad and spend more money on advertising — to recapture, as Mr. Isdell puts it, the idea that “there is a magic around the brand.”
Analysts widely credit Mr. Isdell with improving morale and stabilizing what many considered a dysfunctional company. Coke has a hit in a new product, Coke Zero, and a catchy ad in “The Coke Side of Life,” which focuses on its distinctive bottle; the company is also enjoying brisk overseas sales. Its most recent quarterly earnings were its best in years.
To be sure, Coke — which racked up earnings of about $5 billion on sales of $24 billion last year — remains a formidable presence, in the United States and overseas. The company’s own number-crunchers are fond of saying that a Coca-Cola beverage of some sort is swallowed 1.4 billion times a day in various spots on the planet. (That translates to 58,333,333 servings an hour; or 972,222 a minute; or 16,204 a second.) But Coke is at a crossroads, and it has been slow to make its mark in the booming American market for energy drinks, bottled water and other noncarbonated drinks. Mr. Isdell took a step toward addressing that problem on Friday when Coke announced a $4.1 billion takeover of Glacéau, a producer of vitamin-enhanced water.
The Glacéau deal is a milestone for a company that has never pulled off a takeover of this magnitude before. Even so, some analysts still wonder whether Mr. Isdell and his board remain too conservative to break from traditions that once served them well but may no longer be suited to a world in which consumer tastes are rapidly — sometimes constantly — shifting.
Tom Pirko, the president of the consulting firm Bevmark and a frequent critic of Coke’s soda-dominated strategy, says the Glacéau deal is a good move for the company. But he says Coke needs to be more innovative and invest more resources in emerging markets. With all of the new drinks flooding the market, he likens the beverage industry to television: there were once only three major networks, but now there is cable, the Internet, DVD, and TiVo, among others.
“Fabulous icon, but even icons must change with the times and new generations of young consumers,” he says of Coke. “Even a cursory examination of the Coke portfolio shows little creativity in taking risks or sinking serious funds into new products. Instead, Isdell has satisfied himself with baby steps.”
Not to worry, Mr. Isdell counters. In an interview in Coke’s sumptuous 25th-floor executive offices here, where he sits surrounded by Coke-themed artwork, he says Coke is now prepared to do more than take baby steps — as the Glacéau deal shows. And, he adds, Coke is large enough and has been around long enough act with deliberation.
“People are always in a hurry for instant gratification,” he says between slugs from a can of Coke Zero, one of a half-dozen or so he drinks each day. “For all of the problems, this wasn’t a company that was going bankrupt.
“There is no need to go bet the house,” he adds. “This is not a rescue situation.”
“What could be better than making your living by selling a product that makes billions of people happy?”
— Roberto C. Goizueta, Coke chairman
and chief executive, 1981-1997
Invented in 1886 by an Atlanta pharmacist and Civil War veteran and marketed as a tonic for headaches and fatigue, Coca-Cola became a potent symbol of abundance and effervescence as it expanded around the globe. And much of the credit for Coke’s ubiquitous and special place in pop culture resides with a handful of visionary leaders, like Asa G. Candler, who bought the secret formula a few years later for $2,300 and then began a relentless marketing campaign that included plastering Coke’s distinctive script on everything from lampshades and napkins to sheet music and ashtrays.
Robert W. Woodruff, who was known as “the Boss” and who ruled Coke for nearly six decades, was largely responsible for spreading the cola throughout the world, starting in 1926 with the establishment of a “foreign department.” His masterstroke came during World War II, when he vowed that every American soldier would get a Coca-Cola for a nickel. It made lifelong Coke drinkers out of the soldiers and spread Coke’s appeal overseas.
Roberto C. Goizueta, a chemical engineer and Cuban refugee, became the chief executive of Coke in 1981 — the first non-Georgian to run the company — and spent the next 16 years dazzling Wall Street with the company’s growth. According to Coke, a share of its stock was worth $35.88 when Mr. Goizueta took office; by the time he died in 1997, that same share was worth the equivalent of $2,209.72 — pleasing investors like Warren E. Buffett, who owned boatloads of Coke stock.
By then, Coke had such a firm hold — rivaled by few other companies of any stripe — on the popular American imagination that collectors traded everything from vintage Coke vending machines to salt-and-pepper shakers bearing a Coke logo. After Coke opened the World of Coca-Cola museum in 1990, some 750,000 visitors a year paid to see it.
But like other ubiquitous American brands, from Ford and Polaroid to McDonald’s and Budweiser, Coca-Cola would begin to lose its magic. It seemed to happen almost overnight, as if unseen forces were conspiring against the company: the stock market bubble burst and foreign economies deflated; tainted cans of coke made Belgian schoolchildren sick; some of Coke’s African-American employees sued, citing an ugly history of discrimination.
Worse yet, soft drinks became a prime target in the national debate about why so many Americans were fat. Drinking Coke wasn’t so “fun” anymore, and Americans started reaching for bottled water and an expanding variety of other noncarbonated drinks that offered new tastes and better nutrition.
Coke was accustomed to being dominant, but its potent legacy — built on the principle of saturating markets with cola — shackled the company as it tried to adjust to new circumstances. It was slow to offer bottled water, bypassed a chance to buy Gatorade and dragged its feet in trying to acquire the South Beach Beverage Company, the maker of SoBe. (Pepsi now owns Gatorade and SoBe.)
Under Mr. Isdell, Coke is now trying to be a more spritely buyer. Coke’s deal for Glacéau, the company that makes Vitaminwater, offers evidence of that. Vitaminwater is a huge hit among young people, and is on its way to being a $1 billion brand. In other words, it is exactly the type of hip brand that Coke has unsuccessfully struggled to produce on its own or to buy outright in recent years.
If the deal goes through, it would be the biggest in Coke’s history and significantly bolster the company’s portfolio of noncarbonated beverages in the United States — a portfolio that pales next to Pepsi’s.
For his part, Mr. Isdell — who, like many chief executives, is looser in informal settings than in scripted public appearances — says that coming out of retirement to take the job has given him a freedom that he might not have had if he were younger and less secure. He says that he has been hearing about the need for diversification and acquisitions since he took over Coke and that — at least initially — he put little faith in the mantra because the company was so unfocused.
To the disbelief of investors and some members of his staff, he has routinely maintained that selling more soda, and Coca-Cola in particular, rather than diversifying into other beverages or foods, was a crucial first step to a turnaround. The problem was not the brand, he has said, but lackluster execution by Coke employees.
Soon after he took office, he was unusually blunt in pointing out what he considered to be flaws of his work force, from tepid marketing and innovation to a loss of faith in the trademark brand. “We looked in the mirror and saw that the enemy was us,” Mr. Isdell says. “We really didn’t have a coherent view of who we were.”
MR. ISDELL’S faith in the Coke brand is not hard to trace. The son of a policeman, he moved from Northern Ireland to Zambia when he was 10. He joined the local Coke bottling company in Zambia in 1966 and spent the next 35 years with the company and its bottlers, retiring in 2001 after serving as vice chairman of one of Coke’s biggest bottling operations. His career consisted of capturing and overhauling foreign markets, including South Africa, Australia, Germany, India, the Philippines and the Middle East. He counts among his finest memories Coke’s breakthrough in Eastern and Central Europe — what had been “Pepsi country”— after the Berlin Wall came down.
“We had a map that was all blue, and we were changing the color to red as we went through,” he says.
Mr. Isdell’s focus-on-soda strategy looked disastrous shortly into his tenure. By early 2006, the stock had sunk to less than $40, down from $51.07 when he was elected chief executive. The stock closed at $51.89 on Friday. Some analysts say the initial stock slump was attributable to Mr. Isdell’s intentionally painting a gloomy picture about Coke’s outlook.
“He kind of kitchen-sinked it, throwing everything in but the kitchen sink to lower expectations” says Walter B. Todd III, portfolio manager at Greenwood Capital Associates in Greenwood, S.C. “He kind of underpromised and overdelivered, which was smart.”
Mr. Isdell does not deny it, and he argues that getting bad news out early and focusing on the company’s core brands — Coca-Cola, Diet Coke, Sprite and Fanta — is starting to pay off. Instead of looking for quick fixes, he says he needed to go slow to fix problems around the Coke brand before he could risk “transformational” acquisitions.
“We are in a pretty good place on a road that is a long road,” he says.
Coke’s soft-drink sales volumes increased 4 percent last year, and earnings per share rose 6 percent — respectable, but a far cry from the 15 to 20 percent numbers that Coke posted in the 1990s. In the first quarter this year, soft-drink volumes increased 5 percent, attributable largely to huge gains overseas. Earnings per share jumped 15 percent, as did company profits.
The company’s goal is 3 percent to 4 percent volume growth, with high single-digit growth in earnings per share. Asked if Coke could again reach double-digit growth, Mr. Isdell says, “that’s a question we’ll answer in small increments.” He says that much of the company’s growth will depend on the growth of the global economy.
Some analysts are cheered by Mr. Isdell’s results.
“They are focused on execution and letting the numbers tell the story instead of just talking about hope,” says Christine Farkas, a Merrill Lynch analyst. “It turns out in the end that Neville’s strategy has been pretty much correct.”
Mr. Pecoriello says Coke is capable of sustaining double-digit growth during the next five years if it maintains its momentum. “We do think the turn is real, but there’s more room for upside,” he says. “There’s still a lot to fix in North America. They’re still improving the innovation pipeline. They still need to execute all the productivity savings.”
But believing in Mr. Isdell means believing in a bright future for soda, and there are many who remain unconvinced. According to Beverage Digest, the industry publication, overall global soft-drink volumes were up by 2 percent in 2006; but in the United States, which accounts for a third of the overall consumption, soda sales are declining.
Mr. Todd of Greenwood Capital, for one, said he bought several thousand shares of Coke after Mr. Isdell was hired but eventually sold them because he became tired of waiting for promised changes. “I don’t think he’s addressed the bigger-picture issue, and that is that 80 percent of their business comes from carbonated soft drinks,” Mr. Todd says.
NOW the saying is you have to be global. We were global when global wasn’t cool.”
— Roberto C. Goizueta
Coke is now available in more than 200 countries, the result of an aggressive global expansion that began in 1906 in Cuba, Panama and Canada. Today, about 70 percent of Coke’s sales are overseas. In the first quarter this year, Coke’s volume growth in China was 17 percent; in its Eurasia division, which includes Eastern Europe, India and Russia, volume increased 16 percent.
Coke officials say they have turned around problematic markets like Japan, India, Nigeria and Germany. But on Coke’s global map, the United States remains a glaring black spot that is not only embarrassing, but could potentially infect other markets around the globe. The United States, together with Canada, generates 21 percent of the company’s profits.
Last year, Coke’s overall beverage sales in the United States were flat, and soft-drink sales were down slightly. In the first quarter this year, Coke’s overall United States sales were down 3 percent.
And it could get worse.
Consider, for example, what is happening at a McDonald’s restaurant on the corner of 13th and Woodlawn in Wichita, Kan. The experiment does not look like much — just two unmarked coolers behind the front counter. But what’s inside the coolers is a surprise, because McDonald’s has always given Coke preferential treatment: not only are there Coke products like Dasani and Powerade, but there’s also Mountain Dew, Lipton Green Tea and Gatorade, each made by Pepsi.
McDonald’s installed the coolers during the last year in about two dozen restaurants, mostly in Kansas and Missouri, after it realized that a growing number of customers were buying their Big Macs and Chicken McNuggets and then heading elsewhere for drinks. Besides the coolers, the test-market McDonald’s are also offering free “flavor shots” that allow customers to personalize drinks.
“It’s really about us selling more beverages,” said Karen Wells, McDonald’s vice president for strategy in the United States. “Everything we’ve heard so far is very positive from our customers.”
Coke remains the first choice of McDonald’s and is working closely with the hamburger chain on the test marketing. But Ms. Wells said that consumers would ultimately decide McDonald’s beverage choices — a view that threatens a cozy relationship that began in 1955 with a handshake between the McDonald’s legend Ray A. Kroc and a Coke executive guaranteeing that Coke drinks would be given preference at the hamburger chain.
Indeed, Coke still dominates the fountain trade in America’s fast-food restaurants, a particularly lucrative slice of the business that accounts for 31 percent of the company’s soft-drink volume in the United States and Canada.
“McDonald’s seems to want to expand its beverage offerings to better compete with convenience stores,” says John Sicher, the publisher of Beverage Digest, an industry trade publication. “I believe most beverages they’ll serve in the future will still be Coke products, but what ‘most’ means will be the issue for Coke. Coke needs to keep expanding its noncarbonated offerings.”
All of these developments obviously thrill Pepsi officials. “This is all about giving people more choices, particularly when it comes to product variety, portability and health and wellness,” says David DeCecco, a Pepsi spokesman. “We’re pleased to be working with McDonald’s, and we hope consumers respond favorably to this market test.”
Over the last five years, PepsiCo’s stock has risen 37 percent, while Coke’s has fallen about 9 percent. In the last year, however, Coke stock has jumped about 17 percent, while PepsiCo’s has increased by about 14 percent.Coke is also encountering a seismic shift in consumer preferences — of the sort that is challenging the newspaper business and hamstringing automakers. Worried about their health and lured by new drinks, Americans are reaching for bottled water, sports drinks, green teas and juice instead of soda. The decline in soft-drink sales isn’t just for full-calorie sodas like Coca-Cola Classic, with about 10 teaspoons of sugar per 12-ounce can. Sales of diet soda are declining too, in part because artificial sweeteners make some consumers nervous.
The problem is so serious that Coke executives no longer refer to soda as just plain “soda.” “Soft drink,” “pop” and “carbonated beverage,” are also verboten. Instead, the favored term in Atlanta these days is “sparkling beverage.”
Information Resources, the market research firm, found that dollar sales of carbonated soft drinks declined by 1.4 percent in 2006, to $13.3 billion. (The company’s data does not include Wal-Mart.) By contrast, sales of energy drinks jumped 44.6 percent, to $637 million. In other categories, bottled-water sales increased 14.4 percent, to $4.6 billion; sports drinks rose 10.8 percent, to $1.6 billion; and ready-to-drink teas and coffees jumped 25.4 percent, to $1.2 billion.
Taken as a whole, soda sales still handily outweigh all other beverage categories combined, but the trend lines are ominous for a “sparkling beverage”-dependent company like Coke. William Pecoriello, a Morgan Stanley analyst, found in a survey last year that teenagers, who used to be among the biggest consumers of soda, increasingly prefer other beverages.
“If you lost that generation, as they age they aren’t suddenly going to start drinking carbonated soft drinks,” says Mr. Pecoriello. “That’s the importance of Coke closing the non-carb gap.”
Yet that insight has hardly been a secret. Coke and Pepsi executives have talked about the importance of noncarbonated beverages since the early 1990s and have rolled out all sorts of new products to attract cola-weary customers. But in that effort, Coke has seemed to always be a step behind.
“The difference was, Pepsi meant it and Coke didn’t,” said Emanuel Goldman, the veteran beverage analyst who retired from ING Barings in San Francisco and now works as a consultant. “Coke really didn’t mean it when they said they were an all-beverage company.”
Pepsi now commands a 50 percent market share for noncarbonated drinks in the United States, with Coke a distant second at 23 percent (without Glacéau). Coke has 43 percent of the soda business in the United States, compared with Pepsi’s 31 percent. Pepsi owns the leading brand in nearly every noncarbonated drink category in the United States: bottled water (Aquafina); sports drink (Gatorade); enhanced water (Propel); chilled juice (Tropicana); bottled tea (Lipton, a joint venture) and ready-to-drink coffee (Starbucks, a joint venture).
COCA-COLA is the “sublimated essence of all America stands for — a decent thing, honestly made, universally distributed, conscientiously improved with the years.”
— Attributed to William Allen White editor, The Emporia Gazette of Kansas, in 1938.
So how did Coke lose its magic? Macroeconomic factors played a role. So did a raft of bad publicity over issues of obesity, racial discrimination and food poisoning. But internal issues were also in play. Mr. Isdell surveyed his top executives about the problem when he took charge, and arrogance, he says, was a common answer. Complacency was another.
Trying to figure out why it has taken Coke so long to regain its swagger is an equally complicated question. But taking a look at turnover in the management ranks and stasis on the board of directors provides a clue.
During the 10 years since Mr. Goizueta died, Coke has had three chief executives, three general counsels, four chief operating officers, four heads for North America, and six chiefs of marketing (a particularly troubling metric, given Coke’s reputation for brilliant ads and promotions). The president’s post, the company’s No. 2 job, was vacant for nearly half the decade.
The chief marketing position is now vacant because Mary E. Minnick, who was touted as Coke’s most forceful voice for change and the highest-ranking woman in the company, resigned abruptly earlier this year after it became clear that Muhtar Kent, who was named president and chief operating officer in December, was the heir apparent to Mr. Isdell.
Of the top 150 employees at Coke, 61 are new to their jobs or the company, Coke officials say. The turmoil in Coke’s executive ranks contrasts sharply with its board, one of the most entrenched in corporate America. It has largely been in place since Mr. Goizueta’s term, when the demand for Coke seemed unlimited and double-digit growth was a given.
Of the 11 current members of the board, eight have served 10 years or longer, and four of those have logged 25 years or more. The average tenure for board members is 16.6 years, nearly double the average of Fortune 500 companies, according to an analysis by the Corporate Library, which tracks corporate governance issues and compensation for executives and board members. Coke has the 10th-longest-serving board among Fortune 500 companies, the analysis found.
The average age of the 11 directors is 68. Except for Mr. Isdell, all of the board members are American. One is African-American and one is a woman.
(By comparison, the average tenure of PepsiCo’s board is six years, and the average age of its members is 59. Of the 10 members, there are 7 men and 3 women; five of the members were born outside the United States, including the chief executive Indra K. Nooyi, 51, who was born in India.)
Though Coke’s board treated Mr. Goizueta with reverence and left him alone, it has taken a much more hands-on approach with subsequent chief executives. When Douglas N. Daft resigned as chief executive in 2004 after a turbulent tenure, the board embarked on a ham-handed, highly public search to land a hotshot chief executive from another company. The board ultimately turned to Mr. Isdell, who had already been passed over for the top job once, after Mr. Goizueta’s death.
Donald F. McHenry, a former United States ambassador to the United Nations and a board member since 1981, said in an interview that the board had not handled transitions well since Mr. Goizueta’s death. He called the process that led to Mr. Isdell’s selection “pretty sloppy.”
“The leaks were unconscionable,” says Mr. McHenry, who is also a professor of diplomacy and international affairs at Georgetown University. “It was not the way to run a railroad.”
Mr. McHenry says the board has given Mr. Isdell leeway to run the company as he sees fit; Mr. Isdell does not dispute that. As for the age and tenure of the board, Herbert Allen, a director since 1982, says it has the benefit of experience. Asked about the lack of diversity, he says: “When we are sitting in the room, the opinions are certainly diverse.”
Some have disagreed. Marc Greenberg, an analyst at Deutsche Bank, said in a February note to investors that some of the board’s recent actions were “anathema to real, lasting structural change in how the company does business and may ultimately limit Coke to a high-single-digit earnings grower, even as more appears possible.”
But the Glacéau deal caused Mr. Greenberg to temper that view. On Friday, he said that the Glacéau deal signifies that at Coke “there is a recognition that the world is changing.”
SAILIN’ ‘round the world in a dirty gondola. Oh, to be back in the land of Coca-Cola!”
— from “When I Paint
My Masterpiece,” by Bob Dylan.
Muhtar Kent, who became Mr. Isdell’s sidekick in December as president and chief operating officer, has been traversing the United States in recent months, trying to figure out why Coke is having such problems in its home market.
“If you go south of the border to Latin America, you will see millions and millions of signs of Coca-Cola, over outlets that serve Coca-Cola,” Mr. Kent said. “Sixty-five to 70 percent of everything we sell is based on impulse. That’s our business. There isn’t one sign in the United States. No more.”
Mr. Kent is 54, balding and stocky, and has the frenetic energy of a teenager. The son of a Turkish diplomat, he was born in New York and grew up in Asia, before attending college in England. He joined Coca-Cola in 1978 and has worked around the world for the company. In 1996, Australian regulators accused Mr. Kent, who was working in Europe for a Coke bottler based in Australia, of insider trading after he sold 100,000 shares of the company just before a profit warning.
Mr. Kent settled the complaint without admitting guilt by repaying $400,000 in profits and $50,000 to cover the costs of the inquiry. He says that he considers the sale an “honest mistake” and that he was unaware of the timing of the sale because he relied on a financial adviser to manage his portfolio.
Mr. Kent says he is now focused on turning around Coke’s North American business, including Coke’s always-fragile relationship with its bottlers, who have struggled to grow and have started distributing other, non-Coke products, like Arizona Iced Tea, to remain competitive.
Since Mr. Isdell took over, Coke’s research and development budget has more than doubled. And Mr. Kent says the company is counting on a beefed-up innovation laboratory to deliver new products and packaging to lure customers. The lab is tucked away in a rather unsavory corner of the company’s sprawling headquarters, at the end of a cracked driveway at the back of a low concrete building that looks more like an elementary school than a tech center. A sign on a plain steel door reads “KO Lab.”
“It’s kind of got that skunk-works feel,” says Danny Strickland, Coke’s chief innovation and technology officer. But the KO Lab is less a laboratory than a showroom where Coke takes commercial clients to show off its latest products from around the world and to brainstorm about new ones.
Images of Coke’s patents cover one wall, and there are touch-screens throughout that describe the “need states” of consumers, like “comfort and relaxation” and “health, beauty and nutrition.”
The lab also displays all kinds of new products. “Mother” is a natural energy drink that has been introduced in Australia, while Nanairo Acha, a tea sold in Japan, changes color depending on its temperature. Coke Zero was created here. The lab is also exploring new ways to market Coca-Cola. A “super cool” vending machine keeps soda colder than its freezing point, so that when the cap is opened the bubbles form tiny ice crystals.
Coke is also pumping up the brand. On Thursday, Coke officially opened its new, 92,000-square-foot museum, replacing the old World of Coca-Cola Museum. What is remarkable about the museum is that visitors pay to walk through a building full of Coke ads, albeit interactive and slickly displayed. Museum officials say they expect more than one million visitors a year. (Admission is $15 for adults, $9 for children.)
The museum tour ends in a tasting room that offers Coke products like Bibo from South Africa and Vegitabeta from Japan. On the way out the door, each visitor gets an eight-ounce bottle of Coke before being deposited, inevitably, into a store jammed with Coke memorabilia. The whole experience is like a corporate version of Graceland, Elvis Presley’s former home: the same fresh-faced docents, the same reverent fans, the same relentless merchandising.
It also says a lot about how Coke wants consumers to view it.
In the “Advertising Theater,” visitors can watch some of Coke’s most famous ads. Now showing is one of Mr. Isdell’s favorites, a relatively new commercial called “The Happiness Factory” that takes a whimsical look at the inside of a Coke vending machine. A quarter descends into the guts of a machine, entering a surreal world of oddball characters that prepare the bottle for consumption and celebrate its famous hourglass shape with a parade.
The commercial is “fun.” It also represents the promise of Coke’s powerful legacy and the current aspirations of Coke’s executives: happiness, inspired by a Coke bottle.
“The magic of the bottle,” Mr. Kent says. “Nothing else comes close.”
Unless, of course, it proves to be a water bottle.